Suave's Republique Cricket


Statistical analysis NZ – The England

Right who’s keys are these?  Who drives a Vauxhall Viva.  You’re with Harmison tonight.

I tried to do a statisical analysis of why The England will win the first test.

My head is now fucked, but I’ll give it a go anyway.

The England should score 337 based on the batting averages of all players combined.

New Zealand’s bowling should take a wicket every 33.4 runs.

The England should score pretty much what their averages are, around 335

New Zealand should score 263 based on batting averages

The England should take wickets at 32.03 runs per wicket.

I’ll split the difference, and say that the NZ average score should be 293.

So The England win.

That my friends is mathemetics at it’s finest.


7 Comments so far
Leave a comment

you haven’t shown your working.

Comment by Miriam

Damn..

That’s what they always used to say to me at school.

I used to respond to that, by mooning at them.
So, Mims, I moon at you!

Seriously, I have no idea how to work out who should win, by taking averages into account.

Is it just on batting averages?
Do the bowlers averages matter?

all I know, is The England should win, and we probably won’t, as is their wont.

Comment by Suave

where’s David Barry when you need him.

Comment by Miriam

i actually typed and deleted that exact phrase!!

David Barry, where are you?!

Comment by Suave

I needed Miss Field to tell me to come here. I guess this counts as an admission that I don’t come here daily.

Splitting the difference isn’t a bad thing to do, if you’ve just got raw averages to work with. But luckily for me, I have batting averages that are adjusted to take into account the strength of bowling. So I use those to find how many runs they’d score against an attack with bowling average 31.48, and then scale accordingly.

England 336
New Zealand 240

England should win easily.

Comment by David Barry

Thank you very much David!!

Don’t feel obliged to come her daily, I don’t, and I write the guff..

Comment by Suave

“…batting averages that are adjusted to take into account the strength of bowling.” – brilliant.

Comment by Miriam




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